Estimated load profit vs. actual settlement
The profit you work out before a load is an estimate. The settlement is what happened. Here's why they differ, reconciled line by line on one load, and how to use the difference.
Three different numbers
- Estimated profit: what the load should leave, worked out before you book.
- Negotiated increase: how much more you booked it for than the original offer. Revenue, not profit.
- Settled earnings: what you were actually paid, less what the load actually cost.
Mixing them up makes the business look better or worse than it is.
The load
This is the sample load, Dallas, TX to Memphis, TN, offered at $1,150. The operator countered and booked it at $1,250, a negotiated increase of $100. At $1,250, KRYSTAL estimated $244.51 net after the driver's pay, over about 12 hours: $20.44 an hour.
On the road:
- A closed exit added 23 miles: 571 instead of 548.
- Diesel was $4.05, not the $3.85 in the profile.
- The receiver held the truck 5 hours, not 2. The broker paid $75 detention.
Reconciling estimate and result
| Estimated net at $1,250 | $244.51 |
|---|---|
| Detention paid | +$75.00 |
| Factoring fee on the detention (3%) | −$2.25 |
| Fuel: 571 miles at 6.8 mpg and $4.05 ($340.08) instead of $310.26 | −$29.82 |
| Other per-mile costs on 23 extra miles: maintenance, tires, depreciation, DEF and driver pay | −$22.42 |
| Actual net | $265.02 |
The load made $20.51 more than estimated, thanks to the detention. But it took about 15.4 hours instead of 12, so it paid $17.23 an hour instead of $20.44, under the operator's $20 floor. More money, worse use of the day.
The usual reasons they differ
- Miles: detours, closures and the real route against the quoted miles.
- Fuel price: the profile price against what you paid on this trip.
- Waiting: longer or shorter than expected, paid or unpaid.
- Accessorials: detention, lumper, stop pay, and whether they were really paid.
- Settlement deductions and short pays: on a lease, deductions you didn't count for this load; from a broker, a payment below the agreed rate.
Using the difference
- If the same item misses every time, such as diesel always higher or waits always longer, fix the input, not the load.
- If one receiver always holds you, add the wait for that dock, or ask for more up front.
- If a broker often pays less than agreed or pays slowly, that belongs in how you rate them.
Doing it in KRYSTAL
Record the booked rate on the Value Meter, and the actual revenue, fuel, tolls, other costs, hours and final net profit on Record Outcome once the load is paid. Your Member Profile then compares prediction with result across your loads, and your broker and lane history is built from these records. How to record completed loads.
See how close your estimates are
Estimate before, record after, and let the difference teach you.